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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. In practice, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

Yet the current field is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime underperformers ascending together. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's competing with five other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still