Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
